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As the tobacco industry anticipates a second Trump administration, it’s banking on what some public health experts describe as his unpredictable approach to regulation. Trump’s history of abrupt policy shifts makes tobacco companies hopeful for a more industry-friendly stance when he returns to the White House. Here’s what could be in store for tobacco regulation and industry dynamics under another Trump administration.

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1. Shifting Stances on Nonbinding Guidance and Policy

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Much of the FDA’s policy framework relies on nonbinding guidance documents, which are easier to alter than formal regulations. A second Trump administration might focus on revising these guidance policies in areas not directly established in law, such as nutrition standards and, notably, tobacco control. While the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and Tobacco Control Act protect the FDA’s core responsibilities, changes to guidance could subtly shift the agency’s regulatory focus. For instance, altering guidance on vaping product approvals or advertising regulations could effectively ease certain industry restrictions without repealing laws.

In his first term, Trump took a mixed approach to tobacco regulation. He surprised both supporters and critics by endorsing public health measures like raising the federal age for tobacco purchases from 18 to 21 and placing limits on flavored vaping products. Yet he stopped short of banning menthol and tobacco-flavored e-cigarettes, a decision that public health advocates argued had a negative impact on youth safety and health.

2. ‘Saving Vaping Again’: Trump’s Pledge to Protect the Vaping Industry

Trump recently met with the head of the Vapor Technology Association and later posted on Truth Social that he would “save vaping again,” signaling renewed support for the industry. Although he enacted certain restrictions on flavored vapes in 2019, his recent remarks suggest a more protective stance, especially given the industry’s backing.

This shift aligns with a broader, industry-friendly position that could relax existing restrictions, particularly on menthol flavors that were previously excluded. For e-cigarette and vaping companies, a regulatory environment more supportive of their interests could promote growth, allowing them to innovate and expand product lines. For smaller manufacturers and retailers, many of whom were affected by the 2019 restrictions, this stance could stimulate competition and support economic stability in the vaping sector. While industry advocates argue that relaxed regulations could promote freedom of choice and help smokers switch to alternatives, public health groups worry that looser controls could result in increased youth vaping.

3. The Financial Influence of Reynolds American

One possible reason behind Trump’s recent support for the tobacco industry is the financial backing of Reynolds American. According to a recent report from The Washington Post, Reynolds’ subsidiary, RAI Services Company, contributed $8.5 million to Trump’s main super PAC, Make America Great Again Inc., making it the PAC’s largest corporate donor.<a href="#_ftn1" id="_ftnref1">[1]</a>

This investment is significant, signaling that Big Tobacco sees Trump as a potential ally, particularly in juxtaposition to regulatory challenges like menthol bans from the Biden administration. Reynolds’ support, along with other industry contributions, suggests that corporate interests are counting on Trump’s flexible policy stance, with campaign contributions possibly shaping his approach to future tobacco regulation.

4. Potential Removal of FDA Oversight of Tobacco

In his first term, Trump proposed moving tobacco regulation out of the FDA and into a new agency within the Department of Health and Human Services, arguing that a dedicated agency could better manage the complexity of tobacco products. This change claimed to streamline oversight, potentially reducing delays and regulatory hurdles for the industry.

Having been reelected, Trump might revive this proposal, which could reduce regulatory pressures that have long frustrated the tobacco industry. However, some public health advocates argue that removing tobacco oversight from the FDA could weaken protections, particularly for youth and other vulnerable groups.

A second Trump term offers the tobacco industry both opportunities and risks. On one hand, a more deregulatory approach could open markets and reduce restrictions on products like menthol cigarettes and e-cigarettes. On the other, the unpredictable nature of Trump’s policymaking leaves much up in the air — especially if Big Tobacco’s interests conflict with his past willingness to enact restrictions.

With Reynolds American and other industry giants placing their bets on Trump, the stakes are high — not just for the industry but also for public health advocates concerned about undoing recent progress in reducing youth vaping and smoking rates. Whether Trump’s promise to “save vaping again” will ultimately benefit the industry or lead to regulatory backlash remains uncertain, but the tobacco industry’s major players appear willing to take the risk.

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<a href="#_ftnref1" id="_ftn1">[1]</a> https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/18/menthol-cigarette-ban-trump-biden/

What a Second Trump Administration Could Mean for Tobacco Industry Regulations